Key Messages

Households in northern Ethiopia increasingly face extreme hardships accessing food and income which are driving ongoing Emergency (IPC Phase 4) and Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes. Households have limited food stocks resulting from the failure of the 2023 meher harvest, and income-earning activities have yet to recover from recent conflict. Additionally, in Afar, where livestock is a key food and income source, livestock herd sizes are low and livestock body conditions are poor due to drought. Ongoing food assistance continues to mitigate some of the most severe food consumption deficits among beneficiaries; however, assistance levels are insufficient for a large proportion of the population. In Tigray, there is a risk of more extreme outcomes from February onward if food assistance is not scaled-up as planned and if social support does not continue.

In the pastoral south and southeast, Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are expected to materialize in many areas. Recovery from the 2020-2023 drought is expected to take multiple seasons, and households continue to have difficulty accessing food and income from livestock, the primary food and income source. Food security conditions are expected to improve in many areas during the March to May gu/genna rains, when milk availability and livestock holdings will moderately increase. However, in areas where drought impacts were most acute, notably in Afder, Liban, Dawa, and areas of Shabelle and Borena zones, Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes are expected to persist as household assets are severely eroded and herd sizes are limited.

Crisis (IPC Phase 3) and Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes are expected in areas of Sidama, South Ethiopia, and Central Ethiopia regions. Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are ongoing in agropastoral and pastoral areas that were impacted by the 2020-2023 drought and where households typically heavily rely on livestock; currently, households have smaller herd sizes available to sell to purchase food. Furthermore, the main lean season in these areas will peak between March and May, and many households are likely to have exhausted their own production and will rely on markets for food. As a result, household access to food will be lower than normal as households face both atypically low purchasing power and elevated staple food prices.